Oregon Wine Blog / Sokol Blosser in the Oregon Wine Community

2010 Vintage Forecast

Thursday, August 26th 2010 by Kitri McGuire, Marketing Communications Manager

Dr. Greg Jones of Southern Oregon University Forecasts the 2010 Vintage
In a cool growing season, mitigating risk for a potential late harvest

Jones provides an overview of the summer growing season and forecasts the 2010 vintage conditions in Oregon wine country. Key considerations for harvest include:

Overall, at this point heat accumulation is running 20-30% down from the long-term averages at all stations statewide. If you assume average conditions from today to the end of Oct (average temps, not rainfall) then this year will end up being the coolest in the past 20 years.
If you do the same thing for the coolest vintages in the last 10 years, 2005 (1) and 2007 (2), then the probability of making up enough GDD (Growing Degree Days) to match 2005 is 80-90% and 70-80% for 2007, both cooler vintages where ripeness was not a given in some regions and with certain varieties.

While specifically reporting on the Southern Oregon growing regions, Jones' key assessments can be applied to growing regions statewide. And, as Jones notes, similar conditions are found not only statewide, but in grapegrowing regions throughout the western United States.

Industry members are encouraged to consider the impacts of potential late and cool harvest conditions and implementation of risk management techniques such as crop thinning to avoid a less than optimally ripe harvest. However, it's important to note that conditions could change and that there are both challenges and opportunities in cooler vintages and that classic, quality wines are often made in vintages where there is farming on the edge.

For more information and to read Dr. Jones' full report, please click here.

Labels: harvest